The hottest supply-demand relationship changes, an

2022-08-15
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Changes in supply and demand the market price of rubber continued to fall

in July, new rubber resources across the country decreased, demand increased, and the relationship between supply and demand tightened in that month. However, due to the bursting of the early speculative foam, the increasing pressure on the listing of domestic new rubber and the increase in imports, the market price continued to fall sharply. Looking forward to the future market of rubber, it is expected that before the end of the peak season of natural rubber, the supply of resources will be relatively loose, the inventory pressure will increase unabated, and the domestic rubber market will still fall seasonally, or hover around the current price. However, there have been new changes in domestic supply and demand recently, and the average import price of rubber has fallen and rebounded. If this situation continues, it needs to be closely watched

new resources decreased

although July is the peak season for domestic natural rubber production, the overall rubber resources decreased due to the reduction of synthetic rubber production. According to the calculation of China Rubber monitoring and early warning system, the new resource of rubber in China in July was about 466000 tons, a decrease of 2.9% over the previous month, an increase of 13.4% over the same period last year, and the growth level fell. From January to July, a total of 2.97 million tons of rubber resources were added nationwide, up 17.2% year-on-year, significantly higher than the growth level of the same period last year

in the new resource structure of rubber in July, natural rubber was about 210000 tons, an increase of 17% over the same period last year; Synthetic rubber is 256000 tons, with an increase of 1. Finding this kind of law can be a good disposal error of 0.8%. From January to July, the new resources of natural rubber were about 1.11 million tons, and the new resources of synthetic rubber were 1.86 million tons, an increase of 12% and 20% respectively

domestic natural rubber production is roughly flat. In July, domestic natural rubber entered the peak production season. Although the price is seasonally lower, it is still running at a high level. The position of jiaoshili G is from point C to point D, and the enthusiasm for agricultural production is high. From the production situation of the two major production areas in China, although the output of state-owned farms in Yunnan has decreased, do not blindly check, but the output of private rubber has increased; The climate conditions in Yunnan are good, and both state-owned and private rubber are showing a trend of increasing production. According to the national overall estimation, the national natural rubber production (including private enterprises, the same below) in July was about 80000 tons, roughly the same as last year. From January to July, the cumulative output of natural rubber was about 260000 tons, which basically maintained the level of last year

the output and export of synthetic rubber decreased. In July, the situation of domestic synthetic rubber production reversed, and the output turned from a sharp increase in the previous period to a decline. According to statistics, in July, the national synthetic rubber output was 1 630000 tons, a sharp decrease of 18.1% over the previous month and a decrease of 3.3% over the same period last year, which is the first decline in many years. From January to July, the cumulative output of synthetic rubber was 1.07 million tons, an increase of 14.5%, and the growth level also fell slightly

in recent months, China's rubber imports have increased steadily. According to customs statistics, in July, China imported 250000 tons of all kinds of rubber, a slight increase over the previous month, an increase of 30.7% over the same period last year, and the growth level has improved. From January to July, the cumulative rubber import volume was 1.64 million tons, an increase of 22.3% over the same period last year, maintaining a large growth rate

in the composition of rubber imports from January to July, a total of 850000 tons of natural rubber were imported, an increase of 16.1% over the same period last year, an increase of 3 percentage points over the previous month; 790000 tons of synthetic rubber were imported, an increase of 29%

consumption continued to increase

after entering the second half of the year, the effect of national macro-control policies began to appear, and major economic indicators slowed down. According to statistics, the national industrial added value increased by 16.7% year-on-year in July, down nearly 3 percentage points from the previous month. However, due to the sharp drop in the price of raw materials such as rubber, the production level of rubber products such as tires, which was suppressed in the early stage, continued to rise. According to statistics, the national tire output (including all kinds of tires, the same below) in July was 39.48 million, an increase of 4.4% over the previous month, an increase of 21.3% over the same period last year, and an increase of 8 percentage points over the previous month. From January to July, the national tire output was 242.72 million, an increase of 15.1% over the same period last year

according to the calculation of China commercial rubber monitoring and early warning system, the consumption of various types of rubber in China in July was about 520000 tons, an increase month on month, with a year-on-year increase of more than 12%, and the consumption continued to increase. From January to July, the cumulative rubber consumption was about 3.2 million tons, an increase of 13%

market prices continued to fall

in recent months, due to the large number of new rubber on the market and the increase in imports, the domestic rubber supply and demand tend to be loose, the social inventory has increased significantly, forcing the market price to continue to fall, and a large number of speculative foam have been rapidly extruded. According to the calculation of China Rubber monitoring and early warning system, the average transaction price of natural rubber No. 5 standard rubber in key monitoring areas (sales areas) in China in July was 24856 yuan/ton, down 6.6% from the previous month; The average transaction price of styrene butadiene rubber (rosin gum) per ton was 18469 yuan/ton, down 4.9% from the previous month; The average transaction price of butadiene rubber market was 16810 yuan/ton, down 0.2% from last month

the decline of the market in the natural rubber sales area has put great pressure on the prices in the production area. According to the calculation of China Rubber monitoring and early warning system, the average transaction price of natural rubber No. 5 standard glue in Hainan production area in July was 24465 yuan/ton, down 9.2% from the previous month; The average transaction price of natural rubber No. 5 standard glue in Yunnan production area in July was 25678 yuan/ton, down 2.1% from the previous month

the ex factory price of synthetic rubber fell steadily in the same period. According to the calculation of China Rubber monitoring and early warning system, the average ex factory price of domestic styrene butadiene rubber (rosin type) in July was 18609 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.2% over the previous month; The average ex factory price of polybutadiene rubber was 16762 yuan/ton, roughly the same as last month

The futures market continued to fall. With the gradual easing of the relationship between supply and demand and the bursting of the speculative foam, the futures market in July continued to fall sharply after the decline of the previous month. It is estimated that at the end of July, the average settlement price of the three-month contract in Shanghai Futures Exchange was 23200 yuan/ton, down 8.4% from the previous month

international market prices continue to rise. According to the calculation of China Rubber monitoring and early warning system, the average import price of natural rubber nationwide in July was US $2203 per ton, an increase of 11.4% over the previous month; The average import price of synthetic rubber was $1839, up 1.1%

outlook for the future market

at present, with the increase of domestic new rubber market and import volume, and the inhibition of high prices on consumer demand, the tight relationship between supply and demand in the early stage has been greatly alleviated, which has led to a sustained and substantial decline in the rubber market. It is expected that before the end of the peak season of natural rubber production, the relationship between supply and demand in the rubber market will not change significantly, and the inventory pressure will increase unabated

affected by it, the domestic rubber market will still fall seasonally, or hover around the current price, and there is no fundamental condition for rebound for the time being. However, there were new changes in the current supply-demand relationship in July. Whether this situation will be maintained deserves close attention

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